Art of the Deal: The Merger Settlement Process at the Federal Trade Commission

This paper models the modern merger review process in which an enforcement agency, here the Federal Trade Commission (FTC), interacts with the acquiring firm to determine the outcome of antitrust regulation. Our empirical implementation of a game theoretic analysis tests whether decisions are driven by the costs and benefits of the proposed enforcement initiative as well as whether firms' responses are colored by competitive and institutional considerations. With respect to firms, the results suggest that mergers are driven by the opportunity to capture efficiencies, In contrast, the structural (anticompetitive) characteristics of mergers do not seem to impact firms' litigation decisions. Firms, however, are deterred from fighting the FTC by the potential negative impact on their reputations. In addition, “hostage effects” associated with the size of the noncontroversial portion of acquisitions held up by the FTC's competitive concerns also affect firm decisions.     

The Role of Infrastructure in Mexican Economic Reform

This article estimates the relationship between the provisionof public infrastructure and private output in sixteen sectorsin Mexico. The sector-specific cost functions depend on wages,the cost of capital, and the nominal values of the stocks ofthree types of infrastructure: electricity, transport, and communications.The article concludes that infrastructure in electricity andcommunications generally reduces the cost of sectoral production,but transportation infrastructure tends to increase costs ofsectoral production. It appears that Mexican public expenditureon electricity and communications has enhanced the productivityof private production, but expenditure on transport may actuallyhave had a detrimental effect on private output. In addition,although in general labor and infrastructure are substitutes,in the case of electricity and communications infrastructure,capital and infrastructure are complements. In the case of transportinfrastructure these conclusions are reversed.     

Searching for uncertain benefits and the conservation of biological diversity

This paper describes a model under which the maximization of option value leads to a preference for biological diversity arising from potential substitutability among species.     

Non-Linearities in Electricity Demand and Temperature: Parametric Versus Non-Parametric Methods

This paper investigates the relationship between outside air temperature and the residential demand for space heating energy. These non-linearities are investigated empirically using high frequency panel data for a sample of UK households, and both parametric and non-parametric methods for identifying non-linearities are examined. The econometric evidence finds support for important non-linearities across the range of observed temperatures and points to limitations in the use of parametric functional forms.     

Management, Politics and Non-Departmental Public Bodies

This article addresses the 'quango' problem facing an incoming government. It explores the difficulties for embarking on policy innovation faced by modern British governments, and then looks at the problems of defining and charting Non-Departmental Public Bodies (NDPBs), before analysing the effects of managerial and structural reform and the issue of politicization. Finally, the article discusses the benefits that an incoming government will reap from many of the reforms of the last decade.     

The rise of Asia and structural change in the world economy

In this article, Andrew Sentance describes the growing economic importance of Asia and discusses the impact on the world economy. He argues that Western economies face a problem of structural adjustment not only to low-cost competition from newly industrialised countries but also because of technological changes. Macroeconomic shocks, Single Market restructuring and labour market inflexibility have made this process more difficult in Europe.     

All change? Prospects for the UK economy under “New” Labour

The opinion polls suggest Labour will win the General Election and form the next government. In this article, Andrew Sentance discusses how the UK economy might fare under "New" Labour. He argues that there is likely to be a considerable degree of continuity in macroeconomic policy, but more change in approach to supply-side issues. He highlights four key policy challenges which Labour would face at an early stage if elected and which will give an indication of how policies developed in opposition will be applied in practice.